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Residential Home Prices, Rents and Inflation
Housing should not be viewed from a short-term perspective given transaction costs. Nor should home values be analyzed in a vacuum since you must live someplace. And since housing is truly a long-term...
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Phoenix — Improving and Coming Back
One of the definitions of the word phoenix is a renewal after a calamity, and that is so appropriate for the real estate markets and economy of Phoenix, Arizona. I had the opportunity to again make the...
View ArticleHousing Markets Improving — As Are Lending Profits
Foreclosures dropped in July 2012 to 58,000 from 69,000 in July 2011 (and 62,000 in June 2012) according to CoreLogic. Half of all foreclosures were from five states: California, Florida, Michigan,...
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QE3 — And We Are Not Talking About an Ocean-Going Ship
(written on September 12/2012) A paltry 96,000 jobs were added in August 2012, while at the same time there are an estimated 120,000 to 140,000 net new additional people entering the workforce – and...
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Another Top-10 City List: The Most Affordable Cities For Homebuyers With...
The stagnant economy and massive liquidity actions from the Federal Reserve have driven interest rates to record lows. Freddie Mac, which has tracked residential mortgage loan rates since 1971,...
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Comparative and Forecast Residential Lending Volumes — They Can Change...
Frequently I am asked either what historical lending has been, or what total lending will be next year. Unlike the ebb and flows of the ocean tide, residential lending volume changes have been more...
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Home Mortgage Interest Deduction on the Chopping Block?
Homeownership in the U.S. is good for everyone—correct? And the more people that own homes, the better—correct? Not necessarily so, conclude some individuals. Many would argue that the Federal...
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Robust November Existing Home Sales With Less Than 5 Months of Inventory...
The story behind the November 2012 existing home sales data is that the number of months of inventory was less than five months – the lowest since the market peaked in September 2005. Real estate...
View ArticleToto, ….. We’re Not in Kansas Anymore — Ted’s 2013 Prognosis
The infamous line from the Wizard of Oz, “Toto….. we’re not in Kansas anymore,” is a perfect lead in to discuss the economic, regulatory and political changes that already have and will take place in...
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Interesting Interest Rates – No Place But Up From Here
Since mid-2008 the U.S. Federal Reserve has flooded liquidity into the markets, at which time I gave up trying to forecast interest rates. It was akin to a gambler with $100 in their pocket trying to...
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Interest Rates Up, Date….
Interest rates finally broke from the slumber last week, and we saw the largest single weekly reported gain in 30-year fixed-rate conventional loans since April 17, 1987. That’s more than 26 years. The...
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The Partial Government Shutdown, Wall Street and Implications
While a partial shutdown of government is not unprecedented, the frequency of occurrence is relatively rare. In the United States’ more than 200-year history, the first U.S. shutdown came under...
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September 2013 Existing Home Sales Up 10.7 Percent Year-Over-Year, Median...
The just-released September 2013 existing homes by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) is truly dichotomizing the press, investors, analysts and economists between the Glass is Half Full and...
View ArticleFederal Reserve Bank Lights the Fuse on Tapering Quantitative Easing — But It...
The Federal Reserve has been electronically printing up $85 billion of money per month since September 2012 and buying $45 billion in Treasuries and $40 billion in mortgage backed securities from...
View ArticleAre You Using Twitter?
Since January 2, 2014, I have been Tweeting under the DrTCJ account. To view my homepage click: https://twitter.com/DrTCJ While many of you do not have Twitter accounts, or perhaps you do not follow...
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Interest Rates Impacting Real Estate – July 10 2015 – Issue 7
This is the 7th edition of the weekly overview of interest rates impacting real estate: 10-year constant-rate Treasury Notes and 30-year fixed-rate residential loans. To see the prior Issue click...
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Is Gold a Good Indicator of Future Interest Rates?
Just turn on the radio to a talk station and within a short period of time you will likely hear why you need to add gold to your investment portfolio. The representation is that gold is a great...
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Interest Rates Impacting Real Estate – July 17 2015 – Issue 8
This is the 8th issue of the weekly overview of interest rates impacting real estate: 10-year constant-rate Treasury Notes and 30-year fixed-rate residential loans. To see the prior Issue click...
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Interest Rates Impacting Real Estate – July 31 2015 – Issue 10
This is the 10th issue of the weekly overview of interest rates impacting real estate: 10-year Constant-Rate Treasury Notes and 30-year fixed-rate residential loans. For the first few weeks since the...
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Interest Rates Impacting Real Estate – August 9 2015 – Issue 11
Ted’s Forecast by Fall 2016 (unchanged) 30-Year Residential Rates 5.2 to 5.6 Percent (6 percent is also feasible) 10-Year Treasury 3.46 Percent Rates continued a downward float this past week based on...
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